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glass marks O.T. Global Warming (again) -maybe Joe knows the approach?
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Hi Ray As you say the climate is changing; the discussion is how fast & who/what is causing the the change. I enclose the graph from Nature; the marks on the left axis are 0.5C changes. if you agree that the drop in 1945 was incorrectly measured then there is, for me, no evidence of a big acceleration in change in recent years. In fact the increase in the last 60 years of the last century looks about about the same as the increase in the previous 40? Marton
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glass marks O.T. Global Warming (again) -maybe Joe knows the approach?
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Let me try and make it a little more simple. First, repeat your schoolboy experiment, but with the glass at different altitudes above your measurement point. Derive an equation that relates altititude of glass to temperature change. Now repeat with different thicknesses of glass and derive another equation. Now see what the effect of mixing the air does (try a hair-dryer, on cold setting of course). Try different humidities of air. Now combine all your equations, add in known variations such as diurnal temperature change, seasonal change, the effect of the orbit of the earth moving in and out over 10s or hundreds of years. Getting a bit more complex to predict the effect isn't it? Climate models incorporate all these variables (and hundreds of others) to come up with predictive capabilities. They may not be accurate, but I suspect they have a little more predictive power than your experiment. Phil
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glass marks O.T. Global Warming (again) -maybe Joe knows the approach?
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The only one I'll admit (that I've heard) is the self-evident item that the Globe is warmer now than it was a few year ago. Now the disclaimers: I say "self-evident" because I think the Globe is warmer, but mostly for anecdotal reasons. The scientific evidence I've heard for the warmer globe is tenuous or suspect, but I'm not much of a scientist. "A few years" is vague because I'm not sure if it should be ten years or four hundred, or somewhere in between. But during that period several parts of the globe that I'm aware of have gotten warmer. Finally the biggest disclaimer: this warming is only evidence of a connection between CO2 and global warming because I am told that both are happening at the same time
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glass marks O.T. Global Warming (again) -maybe Joe knows the approach?
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Ray wrote the self-evident item that the Globe is warmer now than it was a few year ago I did some Googling on how they measure Sea surface temperatures. Interesting stuff but it only illustrates the complexity of the topic. Examples; Using engine room water intakes. The temperature varies according to depth; different ships have different designs so intake water at different levels. The depth is also effected by the load the ship is carrying and the salinity of the water; and may be at various depths in the upper 20 m of the ocean. Networks of buoys sending radio reports of temperatures. Good points are the water depth of measurement is reasonably consistent (.g. at 1 meter below the sea surface)and they always take the measurement in the same place. Possible bad point is that there is no research to check if the temperature sensors are still accurate. Satellite, good points are they cover a lot of sea very quickly and they measure very accurately using sea level radiation. They measure the temperature of the top 10 micrometres. This may not represent the bulk temperature of the upper meter of ocean due primarily to effects of solar surface heating in the daytime, reflected radiation, as well as sensible heat loss and surface evaporation. The satellite cannot look through clouds, creating a fair weather bias although techniques are improving here. Temperature deviation between these different depths used for temperature recording can be anything from 0.3C to 2C depending on the sea conditions at the moment. This makes it very hard to compare the readings from the different methods. Remember we are looking at records of sea surface warming showing about 0.7C increase in 100 years to demonstrate Global warming. Marton On 3 Jun., 02:36, Ray Wach <
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wrote: - Ukryj cytowany tekst -- Pokaż cytowany tekst - The only one I'll admit (that I've heard) is the self-evident item that the Globe is warmer now than it was a few year ago. Now the disclaimers: I say self-evident because I think the Globe is warmer, but mostly for anecdotal reasons. The scientific evidence I've heard for the warmer globe is tenuous or suspect, but I'm not much of a scientist. A few years is vague because I'm not sure if it should be ten years or four hundred, or somewhere in between. But during that period several parts of the globe that I'm aware of have gotten warmer. Finally the biggest disclaimer: this warming is only evidence of a connection between CO2 and global warming because I am told that both are happening at the same time
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glass marks O.T. Global Warming (again) -maybe Joe knows the approach?
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When dealing with small changes in measurements over time, such as temperature, one has to be very careful to consider all possible influencing factors. At many of the ground-level points around the world where temperature data has been measured and recorded for the last 100 years (or more) the thermometers are enclosed in white louvered boxes called Stevenson Screens. When these were first erected great care was taken to mitigate against unwanted interference with the readings. The sides and door are louvered to allow a stable flow of air over the thermometers. They are painted white to reflect incoming radiation from the sun. They are set at a height of about 1.25m above the ground to avoid any affect from the earth's low-level radiation. Depending upon their location on the planet the doors are set to open in such a direction that no direct sunlight can fall on the instruments. They were placed in locations where there were no other undesirable influencing factors - so normally well away from any other buildings, roads and man-made structures. I have seen recent photographs of the locations of some of these boxes. They tell an interesting story. Several were in areas which are now paved or tarmaced. Both surfaces which are known to absorb heat from the sun and re-radiate it. Several were in the middle of built-up areas or even right next to buildings. One was actually right next to the heat exchanger of a buildings air conditioning system. I'm not saying that a few, some, many, most or all of the places where these instruments are located have changed in their suitability - I don't know the figures - but these particular locations will certainly now be showing higher temperature readings most of the time due to their surroundings - not because of a general increase in the ambient air temperature. My point is that even the most basic temperature data, which on paper can seem to be unquestionable, must be rigorously questioned before it can be used. In my opinion this is not being done because the politicians have already given the answer and the scientists are being pressured to make the science support that answer. George. - Ukryj cytowany tekst -- Pokaż cytowany tekst -
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glass marks O.T. Global Warming (again) -maybe Joe knows the approach?
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temperature, one has to be very careful to consider all possible influencing factors. No virus found in this outgoing message from George. Checked by AVG. Version: 8.0.100 / Virus Data_base_: 269.24.4/1478 - Release Date: 6/2/2008 7:12 AM At many of the ground-level points around the world where temperature data has been measured and recorded for the last 100 years (or more) the thermometers are enclosed in white louvered boxes called Stevenson Screens. When these were first erected great care was taken to mitigate against unwanted interference with the readings. The sides and door are louvered to allow a stable flow of air over the thermometers. They are painted white to reflect incoming radiation from the sun. They are set at a height of about 1.25m above the ground to avoid any affect from the earth's low-level radiation. Depending upon their location on the planet the doors are set to open in such a direction that no direct sunlight can fall on the instruments. They were placed in locations where there were no other undesirable influencing factors - so normally well away from any other buildings, roads and man-made structures. I have seen recent photographs of the locations of some of these boxes. They tell an interesting story. Several were in areas which are now paved or tarmaced. Both surfaces which are known to absorb heat from the sun and re-radiate it. Several were in the middle of built-up areas or even right next to buildings. One was actually right next to the heat exchanger of a buildings air conditioning system. I'm not saying that a few, some, many, most or all of the places where these instruments are located have changed in their suitability - I don't know the figures - but these particular locations will certainly now be showing higher temperature readings most of the time due to their surroundings - not because of a general increase in the ambient air temperature. My point is that even the most basic temperature data, which on paper can seem to be unquestionable, must be rigorously questioned before it can be used. In my opinion this is not being done because the politicians have already given the answer and the scientists are being pressured to make the science support that answer. George.
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